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Paul Goble
Staunton, Dec. 20 – The West is counting on the appearance of a color revolution in Russia, Konstantin Sivkov says, a calculation that is not without foundation given deepening divisions within the Moscow elite and between the Kremlin and the people and given shortcomings in the Russian government’s capacity to resist.
In words that would be no surprise if they came from a self-proclaimed enemy of the Putin regime, Sivkov, vice president of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences and longtime regime loyalist, paints a picture of a country that he suggests is only “two steps from a rising” that could threaten the country’s leadership (vpk-news.ru/articles/65189).
Viewed from a distance, Sivkov says, the Putin regime “looks both monolithic and powerful in military and spiritual terms, but an analysis of the country’s internal problems and contradictions suggests the presence of serious splits in society and a high level of internal conflict.”
The Russia elite is split, he continues. Putin is pursuing an anti-globalist agenda, but “a significant part of the Russian elite, especially among big business and the senior bureaucracy especially in the economic area are oriented toward institutionalizing ‘the New World Order’ system,” which is completely antithetical to what the Kremlin leader is trying to do.
This conflict has reached the point that “the victory of one of these sides will inevitably involve the destruction of the side which loses at a minimum politically and economically and at a maximum physically.” That means that the regime can’t continue to operate in the same way it has up to now.
At the same time, given the pandemic and the government’s measures of combatting it, the divide between the regime and the population has grown. The level of distrust is at unprecedented levels as shown by the unwillingness of the Russian people to get vaccinated or use the QR codes the government hoped to introduce.
Indeed, the government’s efforts to do so, especially at a time of economic hardship, not only has angered the population but sparked the spread of rumors that it plans truly repressive measures including the wholesale deportation of large groups of the population and even the creation of places for mass graves of those who die from covid or resist.
But even that is not the most worrisome thing, Sivkov says. The government’s means of countering such attitudes have become increasingly ineffective. Its media resources no longer ensure that the government’s messages will be transmitted to the entire population and accepted by it.
And Moscow’s increasing use of force around the country is not working either. “In a number of places there have been incidents where officers of the law enforcement organs have refused to take part in actions against protesters.” That is a clear sign that “the force component of the state is already far from as reliable as it should be.”
“In other words,” Sivkov says, “the powers to a significant degree have lost the levers of administering society in the case of the appearance of widespread social tensions,” something that means “the risk of the rise of a revolutionary situation in Russia” are rising. And the government itself is making the situation worse.
By making concessions on QR codes and other issues, the authorities have encouraged the population to make more demands. By holding elections, the powers have made promises that they haven’t delivered on. And by failing to counter both divisions within the elite and divisions between the powers and the people, they have opened the way to disaster.
Sivkov concludes his article by reminding his readers that “the real ‘fifth column’ is not the people protesting in the streets. This is above all the influential people among the powers, political, economic, informational and force” who have the ability to channel popular anger in a revolutionary direction.
Window on Eurasia -- New Series
Paul Goble
Staunton, Dec. 20 – The Valdai Club has released a study by Timofey Bordachev which argues that while Russia remains the dominant power in the post-Soviet space and most of its neighbors lack the ability to develop without outside help, Moscow can’t afford to take on the burdens of extending direct rule over them.
Instead, the study, “A Space without Borders: Russia and Its Neighbors,” argues Moscow must pursue policies that are based on the protection of Russia’s national security. In some places that may mean absorption as in Belarus, in others like Ukraine a change in borders, and in still others promoting pro-Russian governments (kommersant.ru/doc/5140136).
Bordachev says that “Russia was and will remain the dominant power of the so-called post-Soviet space because it has the largest population, one of the best armies in the world, and an enormous arsenal of nuclear weapons comparable only with the American.” Its neighbors aren’t in a position to solve the issues of their own development and security on their own.
One solution, he continues, “would be the return to some form of direct administration from Moscow of part of the former union republics,” but “this would require the exertion of force which in the long-term perspective would be fatal for the Russian economy and statehood.”
Therefore, Moscow and its neighbors will have to work out “some form of interrelationship which will not require dictating them the rules of their domestic life at defining their foreign policy but ensure the guaranteeing of the security of Russia and a relatively stable world on its borders.”
According to the analyst, “the ideal goal of Russian policy would be the establishment along its perimeter of a chain of states which will take independent foreign policy decisions that take account of geopolitical circumstances,” the most important of which of course is the paramount power of Russia in this region.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are countries that have moved in this direction, he says. Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Belarus are examples of those which have not and must be pressured to do so. Outside powers must avoid taking steps that encourage these countries to think they can pursue an anti-Russian policy.
Window on Eurasia -- New Series
Biden dog Commander to make TV debut during 'Puppy Bowl' Associated Press
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A Dutch chief rabbi called the move reminiscent of mayors who gave the Germans “the names of their Jewish citizens.
Trump isn't admitting wrongdoing, but he's also not fighting such accusations as vociferously as he usually does.
image/jpeg 4S2QWSL6TZFLRJVWM3Z5BVL2W4.jpg&w=1024
image/jpeg 4S2QWSL6TZFLRJVWM3Z5BVL2W4.jpg&w=1024Ransomware Payments Are Getting Bigger As Hackers Shift Focus to Larger Targets: Chainalysis Yahoo Finance
From: deutschewellerussian
Duration: 21:12
Также в программе: каминг-аут в католической церкви, почему Франция делает ставку на АЭС, как живут на испанском острове Пальма после извержения вулкана.
Западные страны призывают Россию отвести войска от границ Украины. Однако дипломатические усилия пока не привели к снижению напряженности. США и другие западные страны грозят Кремлю жесткими санкциями в случае агрессии. Одновременно в НАТО заявили об укреплении боеготовности своих сил. На фоне конфликта Соединенные Штаты приняли решение перебросить две тысячи военнослужащих в Европу. Цель – защита союзников по Альянсу и усиление восточного фланга НАТО.
Агрессивное поведение Кремля вызывает особое беспокойство в странах Балтии. Три бывших советских республики - Латвия, Литва и Эстония после обретения независимости вступили в ЕС и НАТО. Протяженность границы только между Эстонией и Россией составляет более трехсот километров. Эстония входит в число стран, решивших поддержать Украину поставками вооружений. На фоне роста напряженности к возможной эскалации готовятся не только регулярные войска, но и бойцы добровольческих военизированных формирований.
00:00 Европа в фокусе
01:17 Как Эстония защищается от врагов
06:38 каминг-аут в католической церкви в Германии
10:38 почему Франция делает ставку на АЭС
16:08 как живут на испанском острове Пальма после извержения вулкана
Полную версию смотрите здесь:
http://dw.com/p/46oVv
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Federal workers would get biggest raise since 2002 under upcoming Biden budget proposal The Washington Post
Соратница оппозиционного политика Алексея Навального Любовь Соболь на своем канале в ютубе опубликовала фильм под названием "Кадыров. Убийца путинской пропаганды". В описании 15-минутного видео она указывает, что "глава Чечни Рамзан Кадыров своим беспределом раз за разом уничтожает мифы путинской пропаганды: о сильном и бесстрашном лидере Путине, о всемогущих российских силовиках и о порядке". "Рамзан Ахматович наглядно показал, что сегодня в России попросту нет государства", – отметила она. Любовь Соболь, в частности, напомнила, что в 2015 году Кадыров разрешил расстреливать силовиков из других регионов, проводящих оперативные мероприятия на территории Чечни без согласования с ним. Помимо этого, она говорила о произошедшей в 2020 года ситуации с испытаниями на краповый берет, когда военнослужащих из Чечни подвозили на машинах во время марш-броска, что привело к конфликту со спецназовцами из других регионов. "Рамзан Кадыров сумел показать, что в путинской России ничего не стоит даже один из главных символов воинской отваги – звезда Героя России. До Кадырова сложно было представить, чтобы святой для многих символ отличия получил человек, напоказ хваставшийся убийствами русских солдат, – говорит она. – Но путинская Россия – страна возможностей, поэтому Кадыров – Герой России и академик, а я – террорист и экстремист". По ее словам, Кадыров может на глазах у всей страны угрожать убийством неугодным ему людям, а пресс-секретарь президента Дмитрий Песков "будет стыдливо прятать глаза" и "говорить о том, что запрещенная Уголовным кодексом "кровная месть" – это традиция Чечни". Любовь Соболь заявила, что Рамзан Кадыров должен покинуть пост руководителя Чечни. "Более того, Рамзан Кадыров и вся его кровожадная свита должны оказаться в тюрьме за все те преступления, которые они совершили за последние десятилетия", – отметила соратница Навального. Оппозиционный политик Илья Яшин 7 февраля опубликовал петицию с требованием от президента Владимира Путина уволить Рамзана Кадырова с поста главы Чечни. На момент публикации заметки петиция набрала свыше 185 тысяч подписей. Он указывал, что Кадыров за 15 лет во главе Чечни превратил регион "в обособленное государство внутри России", а также, что он, его окружение и местные чиновники публично угрожают журналистам, правозащитникам, судьям и членам их семей. Угрозы насилием и призывы к убийствам критиков Кадырова от него самого и его приближенных звучат часто. Глава Чечни не ограничивается угрозами только в адрес российских политиков, журналистов и правозащитников, среди них были украинские политики и французские карикатуристы. Последний случай связан с похищением из Нижнего Новгорода жены судьи Сайди Янгулбаева Заремы Мусаевой, которое связывают с деятельностью их сыновей. Кадыров не раз угрожал семье Янгулбаевых. Второго февраля он заявил, что "отныне семейке придется жить озираясь, вздрагивать от любого стука в дверь". Вслед за ним с такими же угрозами семье Янгулбаевых выступили чеченские силовики и чиновники.
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Путин заявил об отсутствии контактов с Макроном после его визита в Москву и Киев Lenta.ru
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The Brookyn Times News Review: Vladimir Putin’s aim is bigger than closing NATO’s “open door” to Ukraine and taking more territory — he wants to evict the United States from Europe. - nytimes.com
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Opinion | It’s Not Just About Ukraine. Putin Wants to Evict the U.S. From Europe.
Vladimir Putin’s aim is bigger than closing NATO’s “open door” to Ukraine and taking more territory — he wants to evict the United States from Europe. - nytimes.com
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